Reading the ‘coca’ leaves: Six predictions for global drug policy in 2024

New year, new drug policy? It may sound like a cliché but 2024 promises to be a pivotal year in global drug policy reform. Here are six critical developments to watch out for:

1.Decolonisation in action: Reviewing the unjust scheduling of the coca leaf

In 2023, Bolivia formally initiated a ‘critical review’ of the international scheduling of the coca leaf citing its prohibition as a ‘grave historical error with severe social impacts and infringements on Indigenous and cultural rights’. In the 1960’s, the coca leaf was placed in Schedule I of the UN Single Convention on Narcotic Drugs based on grotesquely racist and colonial prejudices regarding traditional Indigenous practices of the Andean-Amazonian region. Thousands of coca farmers, traders and consumers have suffered violence, scapegoating and criminalisation as a result while coca's many benefits have been ignored and maligned.

The WHO's Expert Committee on Drug Dependence will undertake this critical review throughout 2024 with inputs from UN Member States, representatives from Indigenous communities, civil society, academia and human rights experts. If the WHO recommends changes to coca’s scheduling status, this will be voted on by the CND at the earliest in March 2025 (although it could be later).

The deletion of the coca leaf from the treaty schedules would have serious implications for the integrity of the global drug control regime as we know it.

The deletion of the coca leaf from the treaty schedules would have serious implications for the integrity of the global drug control regime as we know it. On the one hand, it would open the path for the review of more substances that have been subject to international scheduling on the basis of arbitrary and often prejudiced arguments. On the other hand, it would also place a question mark on Article 49 of the 1961 Single Convention on Narcotic Drugs, which commits states to abolish certain traditional uses of psychoactive plants, including not only the chewing of the coca leaf but also the use of cannabis for other than medical or scientific purposes, or the quasi-medical use of opium.

The international community has the opportunity to correct this injustice and start repairing the harm caused by the scheduling of the coca leaf. This process exposes the colonial and racist prejudices that lie at the heart of the international drug control system, which must urgently be addressed.

For in-depth analysis of the coca review process see TNI and WOLA’s Coca Chronicles.

2.Legal regulation becomes an increasingly mainstream policy option

Prominent voices are increasingly mobilising in support for responsible legal regulation in policy making circles, making it an ever more legitimate policy option. This transformative reform is now being discussed in many high-level forums as a credible approach that addresses growing public health, human rights and security crises due to decades of failed drug policy.

A few months ago, the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) became the first UN entity to propose legal regulation as a possible option for a human rights-based approach to drugs.

A few months ago, the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) became the first UN entity to propose legal regulation as a possible option for a human rights-based approach to drugs. This was a bold and unprecedented move, which provoked strong reactions and resistance within the UN system, especially from the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC). Despite this, many states and stakeholders welcomed and supported the vision put forward by Volker Türk, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights. The idea that prohibition is in itself a source of human rights violations, and that legal regulation could offer a more effective and humane way to address the drug phenomenon, is clearly gaining more traction and legitimacy at the UN level and in an increasing number of jurisdictions.

On the 26th of January, the Mayor of Amsterdam, Femke Halsema, will host a ground-breaking international conference that centres a pragmatic discussion regarding the legal regulation of drugs. In a recent op-ed, Ms Halsema outlined her rationale for calling for a change of course, citing the growing violence associated with the drug trade in the Netherlands and the clear failure of prohibition to reduce the scale of drug markets. Notably the Amsterdam event will discuss the regulation of cocaine and MDMA, going beyond the somewhat less contested ground of emerging cannabis policy.

As more jurisdictions are considering legal regulation, these discussions are critical to ensure that models of regulation focus on social justice and reparations for those historically impacted by the ‘war on drugs’, while avoiding the harms of corporate capture.

3.The UN drugs debate: a Vienna showdown in March

International drug policy debates have become increasingly fractious and polarised over time . The recent prominent gains made to centre human rights within UN drug policy commitments in particular have deepened the cracks in the so-called ‘Vienna consensus’ (which has traditionally prioritised punitive prohibition as the key approach to drug control).

To add to diplomatic pressures, the ongoing war against Palestinians has resulted in escalating geopolitical tensions which will be strongly felt in Vienna as in all UN settings. It is likely that the US and several European countries will feel more isolated because of their complicity in the unjustifiable violence that has cost so many lives. The traditional strong defence of human rights language in Vienna coming from Europe, will ring somewhat hollow this year and will be seen as deeply hypocritical by many Member States. This coming year, we are certain to see the fractures in UN drug policy continue to deepen.

The traditional strong defence of human rights language in Vienna coming from Europe, will ring somewhat hollow this year and will be seen as deeply hypocritical by many Member States.

In February, the UN Human Rights Council will hold an intersessional panel on drug policy and human rights – the first of its kind in nine years, aiming to discuss the 2023 OHCHR report and its recommendations for reform. A month later, the UN Commission on Narcotic Drugs (CND) will hold a high-level meeting to conduct a Midterm Review of the 2019 Ministerial Declaration on drugs (the current 10 year global drug strategy). This review process is a critical opportunity to evaluate the achievements and challenges of the global drug control regime over the past five years, and to set the agenda for the next five years to 2029 (when a new overarching political document is likely to be agreed).

It is expected that the Midterm Review will further highlight the deep divisions among governments and UN entities on many core drug policy issues, such as:

• The fundamental role of harm reduction in drug policy, which is still resisted by some countries and ignored by others. Here again, the UN human rights system will elevate the importance of harm reduction this year, with an upcoming report on the issue by the UN Special Rapporteur on the right to health to be published in the summer.
• The growing trend towards the legal regulation of cannabis and other drugs, which challenges the prohibitionist framework imposed by the international drug conventions and results in acrimonious fights at the CND.
• The lack of effectiveness and inclusiveness of the CND’s consensus-based decision making, which has led to stalemate and a lack of innovation in the Vienna setting. This has, in turn, left the CND as an increasingly moribund UN body while other initiatives have emerged in Geneva on human rights, or have been taken directly to the UN General Assembly in New York (such as the US-led resolution on synthetic drugs A/78/131 that was adopted in December 2023).

At this stage, there are doubts as to whether the CND will be able to agree on an outcome document at all.

In this splintered landscape, it is likely that some member states will strive to maintain the status quo and avoid any substantive language in the outcome document of the Midterm Review. Will they succeed? At this stage, there are doubts as to whether the CND will be able to agree on an outcome document at all. And if they do, will the document genuinely reflect the most pressing issues for global drug policy with innovative recommendations for the way forward? Highly unlikely…

4.The United States will continue to struggle with its identity as global enforcer of the drug war

Two intersecting national level drug policy developments have destabilised the US position as the arch enforcer of global prohibition. Firstly, cannabis regulation initiatives at the state-level continue apace with more than 50% of Americans now living in states with access to a legal supply for adult use. In addition, the US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) is currently considering the recommendation from the Food and Drug Administration to reschedule cannabis from Schedule I to Schedule III under US federal law. Federal documents released this month illustrate that the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) now deem cannabis as “less risky and prone to abuse” compared to other substances in the strictest schedules, and also compared to alcohol.

The legal regulation of cannabis for adult recreational use brings the US into conflict with the UN drug treaties. At the CND, US delegates have been steadily reframing the terms of the drug treaties to suggest that they are inherently flexible and more relevant to international than domestic control (in a seeming rejection of the US’s own long-standing position as the main architect of the UN drug control regime). Part of this strategy to downplay any treaty violation on their part is to also ramp up criticism of the International Narcotics Control Board (INCB) for interfering in matters of state sovereignty when questions of treaty compliance arise. We can expect these tensions to increase in the coming year.

The second trend is the devastating overdose crisis caused by a poisoned supply of synthetic opioids, which has claimed close to half a million lives in the US since 2019. The Biden Administration quickly centred harm reduction rhetorically in its drug policy priorities in 2021 and has made funds available, including for harm reduction measures. That said, drug user activists make clear that this is not sufficient to address the gravity of the situation, and have demanded community leadership, the decriminalisation of people who use drugs and safer supply programmes. Last year, the US launched the Global Coalition to Address Synthetic Drug Threats which seeks to galvanise international efforts on responding to synthetic drugs. This new global initiative could be a chance to put health and harm reduction at the forefront of international drug policy. However, it does also raise questions and concerns.

While the Biden Administration has expressed support for harm reduction domestically, this has not been much reflected in the US international drug policy stance, which continues to be driven more by geopolitical concerns and self-preservation.

While the Biden Administration has expressed support for harm reduction domestically, this has not been much reflected in the US international drug policy stance, which continues to be driven more by geopolitical concerns and self-preservation.

In addition, the US-led UN General Assembly resolution on synthetic drugs adopted in December was disappointing and worrying. It failed to endorse harm reduction measures, in particular the provision of opioid antagonists such as naloxone, which are essential to prevent and reverse overdoses. The weak text was a result of the US prioritising consensus and appeasing conservative countries like Russia, Egypt, Iran and China. There are also doubts about the timing and the motivation of the resolution, which seemed to be rushed and mostly influenced by electoral considerations in the US. The focus on synthetic drugs will continue to feature strongly this year in UN drug debates given that new types of synthetic drugs continue to appear in drug markets. The question is when governments will acknowledge that this trend results largely from the prohibition of plant-based substances, and that harm reduction measures such as safe supply are more critical than ever to save lives.

5.The cannabis revolution will keep spreading across the globe, no longer confined to Western countries

The trend towards cannabis regulation continues to accelerate at an unstoppable pace. Initially these efforts were concentrated mostly in the Global North with US states leading the way, followed by Uruguay and Canada – the first countries to take legal regulation to the national level. Then many European governments have also begun to explore the possibilities for fully regulated cannabis markets such as Germany, Switzerland, Malta, Czechia, Luxembourg, Spain and the Netherlands. However, in the past couple of years a growing number of governments in Latin America and the Caribbean, Asia and Africa have started eyeing the economic potential that allowing cannabis for medical and recreational use could bring. Many of these countries are considered traditional growers of cannabis under the global prohibition regime. In Africa, these include Morocco, South Africa, Ghana, Lesotho, Eswatini and Malawi. In Latin America, Colombia has been striving to make legislative changes towards this end, while Mexico has been stalling the process which will now depend on the upcoming elections. Some Caribbean countries are also following suit such as St Lucia, St Vincent and the Grenadines, Jamaica, and Antigua and Barbuda.

The notable example in Asia is Thailand, where the previous administration took a bold step and removed cannabis from the schedule in June 2022, effectively decriminalising it but without any legislation to define how it should be regulated. Dispensaries and weed cafes have sprung up across the country with projections that the industry would be worth up to USD $1.2 billion within a few years. Thailand’s new government formed in late 2023 now seeks to roll back the liberalisation of cannabis announcing that it would ban recreational use, however, while continuing to allow access for medical purposes. The messaging is confusing at best and given the thousands of businesses set up across Thailand, it is hard to imagine how the genie can be put back into the bottle. Despite Thailand’s confused and messy approach, it has likely inspired other few Asian countries to consider changing tact and apparently South Korea, Japan and even the Philippines are in this camp. Definitely a trend to watch closely in the coming year!

6.Grassroots mobilisation to resist attacks on harm reduction and decriminalisation will grow more urgent

Although the global momentum for policy reform is gathering pace, we are also witnessing a worrying backlash against harm reduction and decriminalisation – and this has been particularly the case in North America.

Government authorities in the US states of Washington and Oregon – previously known for progressive drug policy approaches – are reverting back to punitive measures towards drug use and possession. In British Columbia – again, a Canadian province known for its innovative responses in the face of escalating overdose deaths – several members of the Drug User Liberation Front (DULF) were arrested in October for offering a safer supply of drugs like cocaine and heroin, in a ‘compassion club’ model to help prevent overdoses amidst the opioid poisoning crisis.

In the face of repression, punishment and death, grassroots organisations in all corners of the world continue to develop and enact life-saving practices of care and support, including in the shape of critical services for our community.

In the face of repression, punishment and death, grassroots organisations in all corners of the world continue to develop and enact life-saving practices of care and support, including in the shape of critical services for our community. Drug checking, safer use spaces, mutual aid schemes, and safe supply initiatives to protect users from a toxic and unpredictable drug supply have been successfully pioneered by community groups across the globe – often as acts of civil disobedience. This ever-growing legacy of radical care is at the heart of harm reduction’s very beginnings and, indeed, some of the most pivotal changes in harm reduction practices and policy have historically been driven and precipitated by civil disobedience and grassroots mobilisation.

It is on this very premise of grassroots action that, 10 years ago, IDPC worked with NGO partners to launch the global Support. Don’t Punish campaign. Now over a decade old, the campaign has become a catalyst for change, providing a unique vehicle for our vibrant movement to mobilise and promote support, care and compassion over punishment, imprisonment and violence.

Nurturing our movement’s grassroots, supporting those most impacted by punitive policies, and working together to prevent harmful reforms, will be more critical in the coming year than ever before. This is especially important as around half of the world’s population will vote in national elections in 2024 and the outcomes will impact and shape all areas of international politics and policy – including on how to deal with drugs.