Afghanistan Opium Survey 2012

In 2012, the Opium Risk Assessment is carried out in two phases similar to last year. The first phase was carried out in December 2011 and January 2012 and covered the Central, Eastern, Southern and Western region, where opium is sown in fall 2011.

The second phase took place in February-March 2012 and covered the Northern and North-eastern regions, where opium poppy is cultivated in spring. This report presents the findings of both phases.

The result of this assessment in the Phase-1 regions indicates that the largest opium cultivating provinces, Hilmand and Kandahar, are not likely to see an increase in cultivation despite the current high price of opium. In Hilmand, no major changes in the level of opium cultivation are expected and in Kandahar, opium cultivation is expected to decrease in 2012. The reasons for this development were multiple and differed from area to area. In parts of Hilmand and Kandahar the main dominant reason for declining in poppy cultivation is due to improvement in the security situation, campaign by the government, fear of eradication and agriculture assistance particularly within the Hilmand food zone.

In the western provinces namely Farah, Hirat Ghor and Nimroz, poppy cultivation is expected to increase. Similar increasing trends were reported in eastern region namely Nangarhar, Kunar and Kapisa. However, these provinces would still remain at much lower level of cultivation as compared to Hilmand and Kandahar. The increase in poppy cultivation in Ghor province may lead to the loss of its poppy-free status if poppy eradication is not implemented in time. The remaining provinces in the central and eastern regions, which were poppy-free in 2011, are expected to remain so in 2012.

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